权益部投研周报（20230911）
机构：江信基金 宏观分析：谢爱红 行业分析：王伟/俞海洋
一、宏观经济研究：
8月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.7%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，低于预期50.00%，制造业景气水平进一步改善。
从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为50.8%、49.6%和47.7%，比上月上升0.5、0.6和0.3个百分点，大型企业处于扩张区间，中型企业9月有望重返荣枯线之上。
8月份，非制造业PMI指数为51.0%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，仍高于临界点，非制造业持续扩张，景气度有所回落。
生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.7个百分点，表明制造业生产扩张力度有所增强。
新订单指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，重返荣枯线之上，表明制造业市场需求有所改善。
原材料库存指数为48.4%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅继续收窄。
从业人员指数为48.0%，比上月略降0.1个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度有所回落，仍处于收缩区间。
供应商配送时间指数为51.6%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间加快。
此外，8月非制造PMI指数为51.0%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，仍高于临界点，非制造业持续扩张。
从行业看，铁路运输、航空运输、住宿、餐饮、电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、生态保护及公共设施管理、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位于55.0%以上较高景气区间；资本市场服务、保险、房地产等行业商务活动指数低于临界点。新订单指数为47.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，表明非制造业市场需求景气度下降。
总体来看，当前国内的供需恢复速度依然偏缓，加大逆周期调节力度和速度仍有必要。目前来说，“认房不认贷”进入政策工具箱后，北京、上海、广州、深圳、厦门等城市纷纷加快落实，一线城市新房去化明显加快。目前看，大概率房地产最差的时候基本上过去了，看反弹的机会，反转的大趋势仍没有强逻辑支撑。在稳增长政策的推动下，制造业PMI环比修复的方向明确，预计9月份回升荣枯线以上的概率较大。
二、 市场策略研究：
中报回顾，2023年中报披露率达到99.68%，基本披露完毕。整体来看，上市公司整体业绩增速继续探底，这一趋势或有望在三季度得到边际改善。
从中报来看，全A整体2023H1累计营收增速（同比口径，下同）分别为1.61%，2023H1累计归母净利润增速分别为-3.07%，营业收入增速环比下滑，净利润增速环比降为负增长。全A非金融石油石化2023H1累计营收增速4.36%，2023H1累计归母净利润增速分别为-8.01%，较2023Q1降低，营业收入环比小幅降低，净利润增速环比下降3.96%。
从2023H1净利润增速较2023Q1边际变化来看：建筑材料、社会服务、汽车、轻工制造和交通运输改善幅度位居前五；其中社会服务、汽车和交通运输2023Q1和2023H1净利润增速均为正，并且连续两期增速持续改善。
另外，2023Q1相较于2022年、2023H1相较2023Q1连续两期净利润增速改善的一级行业分别为：机械设备、国防军工、轻工制造、家用电器、美容护理、纺织服饰、房地产和环保。
从2023H1累计净利润增速来看：商用车、影视院线、航海装备、房地产服务、酒店餐饮、旅游及景区、教育、其他电源设备、航空机场和非金属材料居前。
从2023H1净利润增速较2023Q1边际变化来看：航海装备、商用车、影视院线、装修装饰、酒店餐饮、其他电源设备、服装家纺、旅游及景区、水泥和一般零售改善幅度居前10；其中航海装备、商用车、影视院线、酒店餐饮和旅游及景区2023Q1和2023H1增速均为正且连续两期改善。
2023Q1相较2022年、2023H1相较2023Q1连续两期净利润增速改善的二级行业主要集中在消费（服装家纺、一般零售、化妆品、旅游零售、饮料乳品等）、高端制造（汽车零部件、工程机械、自动化设备等）、轻工制造（家居用品、包装印刷等）、传媒（电视广播、教育等）、铁路公路和房地产开发等。
总体看，从2023H1累计净利润增速来看：其他服务>可选消费>金融地产>必需消费>TMT>上游资源。从2023H1净利润增速较2023Q1边际变化来看：可选消费> TMT>中游制造>金融地产>上游资源。从2023H1累计净利润增速来看：社会服务、公用事业、美容护理、汽车和商贸零售位居前五。
|
|
申万二级 |
ROE（TTM） |
销售净利率TTM |
资产周转率TTM |
资产负债率 |
||||
|
|
2023Q2 |
2023Q1 |
2023Q2 |
2023Q1 |
2023Q2 |
2023Q1 |
2023Q2 |
2023Q1 |
|
|
石油石化 |
炼化及贸易 |
8.11% |
8.69% |
2.99% |
3.16% |
125.78% |
128.63% |
51.35% |
50.94% |
|
石油石化 |
油服工程 |
7.12% |
6.62% |
3.37% |
3.14% |
78.26% |
79.88% |
63.28% |
62.25% |
|
石油石化 |
油气开采 |
20.43% |
10.99% |
31.87% |
19.59% |
40.28% |
26.16% |
37.04% |
53.01% |
|
煤炭 |
煤炭开采 |
18.28% |
20.27% |
17.17% |
19.44% |
58.93% |
61.09% |
46.66% |
43.57% |
|
煤炭 |
焦炭 |
4.04% |
7.20% |
1.88% |
3.87% |
71.17% |
78.46% |
49.25% |
48.06% |
|
有色金属 |
工业金属 |
10.04% |
11.32% |
3.68% |
4.12% |
132.27% |
133.98% |
53.74% |
53.21% |
|
有色金属 |
贵金属 |
5.79% |
5.34% |
2.57% |
2.47% |
111.57% |
109.75% |
54.12% |
53.18% |
|
有色金属 |
能源金属 |
29.05% |
34.68% |
31.19% |
33.46% |
60.69% |
64.46% |
44.09% |
42.78% |
|
有色金属 |
金属新材料 |
9.94% |
10.73% |
7.09% |
7.64% |
77.83% |
77.68% |
44.10% |
44.06% |
|
有色金属 |
小金属 |
9.81% |
12.30% |
4.58% |
5.56% |
100.96% |
108.34% |
51.24% |
50.11% |
|
钢铁 |
普钢 |
-1.01% |
0.20% |
-0.31% |
0.19% |
96.45% |
98.38% |
57.38% |
57.64% |
|
钢铁 |
特钢 |
5.33% |
6.53% |
1.85% |
2.32% |
106.39% |
104.11% |
57.28% |
58.03% |
|
钢铁 |
冶钢原料 |
9.15% |
11.85% |
13.03% |
15.90% |
51.07% |
54.48% |
33.31% |
32.92% |
|
基础化工 |
农化制品 |
12.50% |
18.62% |
9.73% |
13.47% |
71.72% |
76.99% |
47.17% |
46.52% |
|
基础化工 |
化学制品 |
8.20% |
9.82% |
6.84% |
7.96% |
62.73% |
65.69% |
47.87% |
47.09% |
|
基础化工 |
化学原料 |
5.26% |
8.51% |
5.00% |
7.71% |
56.54% |
60.01% |
46.77% |
45.68% |
|
基础化工 |
化学纤维 |
5.08% |
5.45% |
3.22% |
3.44% |
72.45% |
75.85% |
52.76% |
51.21% |
|
基础化工 |
塑料 |
5.64% |
5.65% |
4.13% |
4.25% |
71.96% |
71.65% |
46.37% |
45.76% |
|
基础化工 |
橡胶 |
6.22% |
6.99% |
4.85% |
5.37% |
69.28% |
72.07% |
44.27% |
43.36% |
|
基础化工 |
非金属材料 |
16.88% |
14.12% |
13.99% |
12.40% |
69.57% |
68.39% |
37.59% |
38.96% |
|
建筑材料 |
水泥 |
3.51% |
4.47% |
3.28% |
4.21% |
45.97% |
47.32% |
51.46% |
50.82% |
|
建筑材料 |
玻璃玻纤 |
11.16% |
12.94% |
11.43% |
13.33% |
46.30% |
48.61% |
49.03% |
47.17% |
|
建筑材料 |
装修建材 |
7.91% |
7.54% |
6.22% |
5.90% |
66.70% |
67.55% |
47.15% |
46.45% |
|
建筑装饰 |
基础建设 |
7.95% |
8.00% |
2.94% |
2.94% |
55.53% |
57.41% |
76.02% |
75.34% |
|
建筑装饰 |
房屋建设 |
11.98% |
12.13% |
2.75% |
2.85% |
73.72% |
75.93% |
78.51% |
77.56% |
|
建筑装饰 |
专业工程 |
6.26% |
6.29% |
2.19% |
2.28% |
84.03% |
84.35% |
71.45% |
70.04% |
|
建筑装饰 |
装修装饰 |
-23.63% |
-25.63% |
-8.81% |
-9.67% |
56.82% |
56.48% |
77.55% |
77.37% |
|
建筑装饰 |
工程咨询服务 |
5.25% |
4.92% |
4.46% |
4.24% |
61.18% |
61.13% |
51.05% |
49.94% |
|
机械设备 |
专用设备 |
6.91% |
6.92% |
6.46% |
6.59% |
49.19% |
49.69% |
55.10% |
54.23% |
|
机械设备 |
通用设备 |
6.41% |
6.50% |
5.98% |
6.12% |
56.52% |
56.88% |
47.31% |
46.50% |
|
机械设备 |
轨交设备 |
6.49% |
6.50% |
6.13% |
6.16% |
49.17% |
50.26% |
55.20% |
53.88% |
|
机械设备 |
工程机械 |
8.52% |
7.39% |
6.80% |
6.18% |
52.04% |
49.89% |
58.08% |
57.99% |
|
机械设备 |
自动化设备 |
8.10% |
7.99% |
8.40% |
8.03% |
49.90% |
50.15% |
47.84% |
49.01% |
|
电力设备 |
光伏设备 |
23.08% |
22.69% |
12.61% |
12.80% |
75.76% |
76.32% |
58.67% |
56.76% |
|
电力设备 |
风电设备 |
5.61% |
5.60% |
5.22% |
5.29% |
40.61% |
40.80% |
61.38% |
60.34% |
|
电力设备 |
电池 |
9.32% |
13.71% |
6.17% |
8.25% |
63.74% |
62.22% |
55.37% |
60.64% |
|
电力设备 |
电网设备 |
10.31% |
10.46% |
8.10% |
8.29% |
66.51% |
69.05% |
52.52% |
51.10% |
|
电力设备 |
电机 |
6.84% |
7.03% |
5.70% |
5.88% |
65.11% |
65.85% |
44.12% |
43.94% |
|
电力设备 |
其他电源设备 |
3.05% |
2.06% |
2.68% |
2.09% |
43.45% |
42.19% |
63.58% |
61.32% |
|
国防军工 |
航天装备 |
5.04% |
5.47% |
7.91% |
8.30% |
33.49% |
35.65% |
43.09% |
41.41% |
|
国防军工 |
航空装备 |
7.09% |
7.32% |
7.26% |
7.06% |
45.42% |
45.37% |
53.21% |
55.63% |
|
国防军工 |
航海装备 |
-0.03% |
-0.67% |
0.37% |
-0.45% |
31.72% |
29.73% |
60.36% |
59.57% |
|
国防军工 |
军工电子 |
5.66% |
5.76% |
9.21% |
9.38% |
39.11% |
39.05% |
35.43% |
35.63% |
|
国防军工 |
地面兵装 |
3.99% |
5.16% |
5.14% |
6.23% |
49.03% |
49.32% |
38.74% |
41.56% |
|
汽车 |
乘用车 |
7.32% |
7.00% |
3.19% |
3.29% |
78.83% |
74.10% |
65.61% |
65.01% |
|
汽车 |
商用车 |
1.82% |
-1.18% |
0.71% |
-0.51% |
80.87% |
74.17% |
66.06% |
65.70% |
|
汽车 |
汽车零部件 |
6.44% |
5.73% |
4.32% |
4.00% |
67.72% |
66.42% |
54.30% |
53.33% |
|
汽车 |
摩托车及其他 |
8.84% |
8.89% |
5.21% |
5.29% |
81.69% |
82.99% |
47.68% |
48.05% |
|
汽车 |
汽车服务 |
-1.00% |
-2.45% |
-0.11% |
-0.59% |
117.85% |
114.01% |
59.82% |
58.70% |
|
家用电器 |
白色家电 |
20.53% |
19.41% |
8.50% |
8.24% |
76.42% |
77.93% |
67.12% |
65.70% |
|
家用电器 |
黑色家电 |
4.90% |
5.38% |
2.14% |
2.29% |
90.68% |
93.04% |
62.27% |
60.87% |
|
家用电器 |
小家电 |
16.64% |
15.51% |
9.41% |
9.22% |
98.11% |
96.65% |
44.44% |
42.49% |
|
家用电器 |
厨卫电器 |
14.18% |
13.16% |
12.08% |
11.59% |
72.48% |
73.29% |
37.27% |
34.50% |
|
家用电器 |
家电零部件 |
14.67% |
14.22% |
8.15% |
7.98% |
81.63% |
81.10% |
52.98% |
52.43% |
|
家用电器 |
照明设备 |
8.89% |
8.68% |
6.60% |
6.51% |
72.53% |
75.52% |
41.45% |
38.73% |
|
家用电器 |
其他家电 |
4.39% |
4.86% |
4.72% |
4.90% |
60.09% |
62.96% |
38.78% |
38.15% |
|
轻工制造 |
家居用品 |
9.31% |
8.18% |
7.05% |
6.20% |
70.45% |
71.14% |
45.44% |
44.74% |
|
轻工制造 |
造纸 |
0.35% |
1.48% |
0.15% |
0.96% |
59.44% |
62.15% |
58.40% |
57.67% |
|
轻工制造 |
包装印刷 |
4.41% |
4.26% |
3.58% |
3.45% |
68.26% |
69.16% |
42.75% |
42.03% |
|
轻工制造 |
文娱用品 |
6.86% |
6.95% |
4.36% |
4.56% |
92.57% |
92.18% |
43.23% |
41.44% |
|
商贸零售 |
旅游零售 |
9.65% |
9.43% |
9.21% |
9.82% |
79.38% |
73.15% |
27.62% |
29.53% |
|
商贸零售 |
一般零售 |
2.62% |
1.82% |
2.08% |
1.56% |
50.78% |
47.51% |
62.42% |
62.56% |
|
商贸零售 |
互联网电商 |
1.78% |
-28.58% |
0.59% |
-9.03% |
141.95% |
78.42% |
46.38% |
75.91% |
|
商贸零售 |
贸易 |
2.95% |
2.98% |
1.30% |
1.15% |
159.66% |
168.39% |
64.78% |
65.19% |
|
商贸零售 |
专业连锁 |
7.72% |
-9.30% |
0.75% |
-0.66% |
360.44% |
326.54% |
67.65% |
74.28% |
|
社会服务 |
酒店餐饮 |
1.30% |
-1.64% |
2.30% |
-2.25% |
27.18% |
24.76% |
61.77% |
60.80% |
|
社会服务 |
旅游及景区 |
-2.27% |
-6.50% |
-4.45% |
-17.05% |
27.70% |
21.88% |
44.51% |
43.84% |
|
社会服务 |
教育 |
-4.88% |
-6.96% |
-8.34% |
-11.27% |
30.76% |
30.14% |
52.73% |
53.25% |
|
社会服务 |
体育 |
251.59% |
600.69% |
-236.20% |
-191.99% |
24.04% |
23.34% |
114.51% |
99.28% |
|
社会服务 |
专业服务 |
9.17% |
7.86% |
8.67% |
7.65% |
67.40% |
62.99% |
38.03% |
40.22% |
|
美容护理 |
个护用品 |
8.18% |
8.65% |
7.98% |
8.46% |
69.80% |
69.90% |
31.34% |
30.82% |
|
美容护理 |
化妆品 |
7.50% |
6.02% |
7.68% |
6.25% |
61.34% |
61.15% |
36.61% |
35.81% |
|
美容护理 |
医疗美容 |
7.86% |
6.19% |
9.85% |
8.02% |
55.16% |
52.54% |
28.17% |
28.26% |
|
食品饮料 |
白酒 |
28.10% |
25.22% |
38.68% |
38.65% |
55.02% |
50.69% |
24.38% |
22.77% |
|
食品饮料 |
非白酒 |
8.81% |
7.96% |
11.10% |
10.44% |
56.01% |
55.86% |
39.27% |
37.37% |
|
食品饮料 |
饮料乳品 |
13.72% |
12.38% |
7.04% |
6.69% |
83.24% |
79.97% |
54.24% |
53.55% |
|
食品饮料 |
食品加工 |
12.52% |
12.49% |
6.09% |
6.38% |
117.71% |
115.07% |
39.63% |
39.52% |
|
食品饮料 |
调味发酵品 |
10.82% |
13.57% |
11.71% |
15.02% |
67.54% |
67.89% |
26.43% |
24.17% |
|
食品饮料 |
休闲食品 |
8.51% |
8.09% |
6.37% |
6.32% |
90.37% |
87.57% |
31.41% |
30.39% |
|
纺织服饰 |
纺织制造 |
6.04% |
6.50% |
5.13% |
5.55% |
66.81% |
68.63% |
41.91% |
39.97% |
|
纺织服饰 |
服装家纺 |
4.28% |
3.08% |
4.81% |
3.51% |
49.30% |
48.76% |
43.42% |
42.72% |
|
纺织服饰 |
饰品 |
2.28% |
2.09% |
1.00% |
0.98% |
191.59% |
173.84% |
46.27% |
47.81% |
|
医药生物 |
化学制药 |
7.02% |
6.71% |
8.38% |
8.04% |
51.52% |
51.24% |
38.78% |
39.22% |
|
医药生物 |
中药 |
8.73% |
7.83% |
9.04% |
8.46% |
60.30% |
58.25% |
37.08% |
36.46% |
|
医药生物 |
医疗器械 |
10.63% |
12.00% |
17.43% |
19.02% |
44.40% |
46.48% |
26.21% |
25.58% |
|
医药生物 |
生物制品 |
3.13% |
3.16% |
6.51% |
7.07% |
35.33% |
35.33% |
24.28% |
23.08% |
|
医药生物 |
医疗服务 |
10.58% |
12.05% |
13.54% |
14.90% |
51.29% |
52.27% |
33.58% |
34.84% |
|
医药生物 |
医药商业 |
6.52% |
7.40% |
1.91% |
2.24% |
125.35% |
123.27% |
65.84% |
65.25% |
|
农林牧渔 |
养殖业 |
5.38% |
7.20% |
2.32% |
3.06% |
85.73% |
82.71% |
65.64% |
63.56% |
|
农林牧渔 |
农产品加工 |
1.17% |
2.84% |
0.29% |
0.91% |
104.02% |
107.61% |
58.22% |
57.18% |
|
农林牧渔 |
种植业 |
4.14% |
4.41% |
3.14% |
3.88% |
60.86% |
53.01% |
51.99% |
52.05% |
|
农林牧渔 |
饲料 |
3.13% |
5.62% |
0.73% |
1.49% |
156.25% |
152.05% |
60.42% |
58.66% |
|
农林牧渔 |
动物保健 |
7.43% |
7.18% |
12.92% |
12.90% |
39.07% |
39.75% |
27.20% |
25.12% |
|
农林牧渔 |
农业综合 |
6.34% |
8.40% |
2.08% |
2.70% |
104.97% |
111.26% |
62.67% |
61.82% |
|
农林牧渔 |
林业 |
-3.70% |
1.63% |
-5.03% |
4.61% |
25.70% |
27.33% |
48.37% |
47.97% |
|
农林牧渔 |
渔业 |
-1.61% |
1.00% |
-1.28% |
1.00% |
56.94% |
56.03% |
50.77% |
51.60% |
|
电子 |
半导体 |
4.97% |
6.65% |
8.64% |
10.87% |
34.72% |
36.87% |
33.98% |
34.10% |
|
电子 |
消费电子 |
10.67% |
10.41% |
4.18% |
4.07% |
125.66% |
130.49% |
49.96% |
48.10% |
|
电子 |
光学光电子 |
-3.02% |
-2.28% |
-3.35% |
-3.21% |
44.31% |
44.41% |
54.97% |
54.51% |
|
电子 |
元件 |
8.29% |
8.84% |
8.19% |
8.67% |
58.91% |
60.78% |
40.75% |
39.54% |
|
电子 |
电子化学品 |
6.51% |
7.67% |
9.32% |
10.77% |
47.84% |
48.83% |
31.77% |
31.28% |
|
电子 |
其他电子 |
6.30% |
6.87% |
2.62% |
2.67% |
128.00% |
141.07% |
46.55% |
46.20% |
|
计算机 |
计算机设备 |
6.39% |
6.51% |
6.12% |
6.29% |
57.61% |
58.47% |
44.79% |
43.68% |
|
计算机 |
IT服务 |
2.08% |
2.14% |
2.14% |
2.09% |
70.75% |
72.63% |
43.51% |
43.84% |
|
计算机 |
软件开发 |
1.53% |
1.28% |
1.52% |
1.26% |
61.78% |
62.63% |
34.17% |
33.35% |
|
通信 |
通信服务 |
8.46% |
8.26% |
9.18% |
9.01% |
53.49% |
53.07% |
39.39% |
39.43% |
|
通信 |
通信设备 |
8.79% |
8.63% |
6.22% |
6.07% |
67.78% |
68.66% |
50.02% |
49.96% |
|
传媒 |
出版 |
9.40% |
9.42% |
11.42% |
11.59% |
50.65% |
49.86% |
37.78% |
37.67% |
|
传媒 |
游戏 |
-0.74% |
-0.70% |
-0.07% |
-0.08% |
43.13% |
43.44% |
27.06% |
27.34% |
|
传媒 |
广告营销 |
1.65% |
0.03% |
0.84% |
0.03% |
113.75% |
110.26% |
40.67% |
40.98% |
|
传媒 |
数字媒体 |
7.46% |
7.48% |
11.71% |
11.81% |
42.39% |
42.62% |
31.60% |
30.82% |
|
传媒 |
影视院线 |
-4.49% |
-7.14% |
-8.81% |
-14.95% |
28.26% |
25.75% |
45.63% |
46.90% |
|
传媒 |
电视广播 |
0.56% |
0.47% |
2.19% |
1.89% |
21.27% |
21.20% |
41.43% |
40.69% |
|
银行 |
国有大型银行 |
9.98% |
9.89% |
38.32% |
37.60% |
2.00% |
2.08% |
92.29% |
92.06% |
|
银行 |
股份制银行 |
9.79% |
9.75% |
32.92% |
32.52% |
2.41% |
2.46% |
91.89% |
91.79% |
|
银行 |
城商行 |
10.66% |
10.59% |
39.24% |
38.45% |
2.03% |
2.07% |
92.54% |
92.51% |
|
银行 |
农商行 |
10.11% |
9.84% |
39.96% |
38.63% |
2.08% |
2.09% |
91.81% |
91.81% |
|
非银金融 |
证券 |
5.71% |
6.20% |
28.49% |
29.35% |
4.22% |
4.43% |
78.85% |
78.82% |
|
非银金融 |
保险 |
9.41% |
10.45% |
7.55% |
7.99% |
13.26% |
14.14% |
89.20% |
88.86% |
|
非银金融 |
多元金融 |
4.71% |
5.15% |
23.23% |
22.61% |
4.69% |
5.31% |
78.39% |
77.95% |
|
房地产 |
房地产开发 |
-1.40% |
-4.90% |
0.10% |
-1.99% |
22.22% |
21.07% |
77.78% |
79.32% |
|
房地产 |
房地产服务 |
-3.41% |
-3.13% |
-2.28% |
-2.24% |
53.95% |
51.54% |
60.69% |
60.91% |
|
公用事业 |
电力 |
6.41% |
5.43% |
8.43% |
6.60% |
27.61% |
28.89% |
64.86% |
65.19% |
|
公用事业 |
燃气 |
12.76% |
12.26% |
6.47% |
6.31% |
79.98% |
80.90% |
58.78% |
58.67% |
|
交通运输 |
航空机场 |
-44.04% |
-60.52% |
-25.22% |
-46.21% |
28.39% |
21.94% |
83.70% |
83.66% |
|
交通运输 |
铁路公路 |
6.37% |
5.49% |
16.43% |
14.99% |
20.69% |
20.13% |
44.40% |
43.01% |
|
交通运输 |
航运港口 |
14.21% |
17.61% |
23.46% |
26.32% |
33.27% |
37.31% |
43.61% |
42.71% |
|
交通运输 |
物流 |
9.38% |
9.78% |
1.42% |
1.46% |
182.22% |
188.87% |
68.38% |
68.65% |
|
环保 |
环境治理 |
5.54% |
5.38% |
8.74% |
8.50% |
25.57% |
25.96% |
58.86% |
58.63% |
|
环保 |
环保设备 |
4.86% |
4.98% |
4.80% |
5.01% |
51.47% |
51.62% |
49.57% |
49.13% |
三、 行业研究：
计算机行业：
9月8日，中国资产评估协会发布《数据资产评估指导意见》，对数据资产的相关属性，价值影响因素，价值评估方法做出了总体性规定。本次《指导意见》，正式明确了数据资产将以何种价值入表，以及未来将以何种价值交易，进一步推动数据要素的价值实现，产业化、资本化路径有望逐步展开，数据有望成为数字经济时代的第一生产要素。7月28日，据人力资源和社会保障部消息，任命刘烈宏为国家数据局首任局长；8月21日，财政部正式印发《企业数据资源相关会计处理暂行规定》。伴随自上而下监管体系的确立，我们认为数据确权、收益、交易等方面的政策有望陆续推出，数据要素落地进度有望持续超预期。
汽车行业：
- 本周，沪深300指数下跌1.36%，汽车行业指数下跌1.00%，跌幅小于沪深300指数，在申万31个一级行业中，位列第19位。国防军工板块上涨4.30%，涨幅最高，传媒板块下跌6.59%，跌幅最大。
2. 汽车行业二级子板块：商用车上涨0.27%，涨幅最大；汽车服务下跌2.60%，跌幅最大。
3. 个股方面：汽车行业板块内共有个股251只。上周，板块内个股跌多涨少，其中63只个股上涨，186只个股下跌。个股涨跌幅均值为-1.17%，中值为-1.22%。涨幅最大的个股是：赛力斯(18.46%)；跌幅最大的个股是：纽泰格(-16.89%)。
|
板块个股概况 |
幅度 |
|
总个股数 |
251 |
|
最大值 |
18.46% |
|
最小值 |
-16.89% |
|
平均值 |
-1.17% |
|
中值 |
-1.22% |
|
上涨个数 |
63 |
|
下跌个数 |
186 |
4. 估值方面，截止2023年9月8日，沪深300市盈率为11.6X，汽车行业的市盈率为27X。
在我国汽车工业的营收规模及利润规模不断扩大的同时，汽车行业估值(PE-TTM)中枢也逐步上行，近20年的PE中枢值为20.38X，近10年中枢值为22.59X，近5年中枢值为28.17X，近3年中枢值为30.68X，这一特征也符合当下汽车行业转型升级大趋势，即：新能源汽车渗透率快速上行，智能驾驶等高科技配置渗透率迅速提升。
考虑到行业发展背景（内部产品结构变更）和行业属性（制造业属性+科技属性），2019年至今的估值数据更具统一性。
当前，PE-TTM为27.05，分位数（2019年至今）为38.28%；PB-TTM为3.24，分位数为53.16%；市销率为1.03，分位数为42.49%。以上数据显示，汽车行业整体估值稍低于2019年以来的中枢值。
当前，PE-TTM为27.3，分位数（2019年至今）为49.79%；PB-TTM为2.08，分位数为75%；市销率为1.03，分位数为25%。以上数据显示，汽车行业整体估值稍低于2019年以来的中枢值。
|
|
倍数 |
分位数 |
|
PE-TTM |
27.05 |
38.28 |
|
PB-MRQ |
3.24 |
53.16 |
|
PS-TTM |
1.02 |
42.49 |
5. 2023年8月乘用车市场销量概述
乘用车：8月，狭义乘用车零售为192万辆，为历史同期最高销量，同比增长2.5%，环比增长8.6%；1-8月狭义乘用车累计零售为1322万辆，同比增长2%。
新能源：8月，新能源乘用车零售71.6万辆，同比增长34.5%，环比增长11.8%，单月新能源渗透率为37.3%；1-8月累计零售为44.1万辆，同比增长36%，累计新能源渗透率为34%。
出口：8月，乘用车出口33万辆，同比增长31%，环比增长7%。其中，新能源乘用车出口7.8万辆，同比增长7%，环比下降11.8%。
风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金的风险等级、权益类资产的投资比例及投资基金可能面临的风险事项请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件以及基金管理人及销售机构官网产品页面的介绍。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。中国证监会对基金募集的注册，并不表明其对基金的价值和收益作出实质性判断和保证，也不表明投资于本基金没有风险。投资者购买基金时应详细阅读本基金的基金合同和招募说明书等法律文件，了解基金的具体情况。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。