> 江信基金管理有限公司 > 资讯中心 > 研究报告 > 权益部投研周报（2023009011）宏观经济研究：
8月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.7%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，低于预期50.00%，制造业景气水平进一步改善。
从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为50.8%、49.6%和47.7%，比上月上升0.5、0.6和0.3个百分点，大型企业处于扩张区间，中型企业9月有望重返荣枯线之上。
8月份，非制造业PMI指数为51.0%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，仍高于临界点，非制造业持续扩张，景气度有所回落。
生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.7个百分点，表明制造业生产扩张力度有所增强。
新订单指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，重返荣枯线之上，表明制造业市场需求有所改善。
原材料库存指数为48.4%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅继续收窄。
从业人员指数为48.0%，比上月略降0.1个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度有所回落，仍处于收缩区间。
供应商配送时间指数为51.6%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间加快。
此外，8月非制造PMI指数为51.0%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，仍高于临界点，非制造业持续扩张。
从行业看，铁路运输、航空运输、住宿、餐饮、电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、生态保护及公共设施管理、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位于55.0%以上较高景气区间；资本市场服务、保险、房地产等行业商务活动指数低于临界点。新订单指数为47.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，表明非制造业市场需求景气度下降。
总体来看，当前国内的供需恢复速度依然偏缓，加大逆周期调节力度和速度仍有必要。目前来说，“认房不认贷”进入政策工具箱后，北京、上海、广州、深圳、厦门等城市纷纷加快落实，一线城市新房去化明显加快。目前看，大概率房地产最差的时候基本上过去了，看反弹的机会，反转的大趋势仍没有强逻辑支撑。在稳增长政策的推动下，制造业PMI环比修复的方向明确，预计9月份回升荣枯线以上的概率较大。
市场策略研究：
中报回顾，2023年中报披露率达到99.68%，基本披露完毕。整体来看，上市公司整体业绩增速继续探底，这一趋势或有望在三季度得到边际改善。
从中报来看，全A整体2023H1累计营收增速（同比口径，下同）分别为1.61%，2023H1累计归母净利润增速分别为-3.07%，营业收入增速环比下滑，净利润增速环比降为负增长。全A非金融石油石化2023H1累计营收增速4.36%，2023H1累计归母净利润增速分别为-8.01%，较2023Q1降低，营业收入环比小幅降低，净利润增速环比下降3.96%。
从2023H1净利润增速较2023Q1边际变化来看：建筑材料、社会服务、汽车、轻工制造和交通运输改善幅度位居前五；其中社会服务、汽车和交通运输2023Q1和2023H1净利润增速均为正，并且连续两期增速持续改善。
另外，2023Q1相较于2022年、2023H1相较2023Q1连续两期净利润增速改善的一级行业分别为：机械设备、国防军工、轻工制造、家用电器、美容护理、纺织服饰、房地产和环保。
从2023H1累计净利润增速来看：商用车、影视院线、航海装备、房地产服务、酒店餐饮、旅游及景区、教育、其他电源设备、航空机场和非金属材料居前。
从2023H1净利润增速较2023Q1边际变化来看：航海装备、商用车、影视院线、装修装饰、酒店餐饮、其他电源设备、服装家纺、旅游及景区、水泥和一般零售改善幅度居前10；其中航海装备、商用车、影视院线、酒店餐饮和旅游及景区2023Q1和2023H1增速均为正且连续两期改善。
2023Q1相较2022年、2023H1相较2023Q1连续两期净利润增速改善的二级行业主要集中在消费（服装家纺、一般零售、化妆品、旅游零售、饮料乳品等）、高端制造（汽车零部件、工程机械、自动化设备等）、轻工制造（家居用品、包装印刷等）、传媒（电视广播、教育等）、铁路公路和房地产开发等。
总体看，从2023H1累计净利润增速来看：其他服务>可选消费>金融地产>必需消费>TMT>上游资源。从2023H1净利润增速较2023Q1边际变化来看：可选消费> TMT>中游制造>金融地产>上游资源。从2023H1累计净利润增速来看：社会服务、公用事业、美容护理、汽车和商贸零售位居前五。
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|
申万二级 |
ROE（TTM） |
销售净利率TTM |
资产周转率TTM |
资产负债率 |
||||
|
|
2023Q2 |
2023Q1 |
2023Q2 |
2023Q1 |
2023Q2 |
2023Q1 |
2023Q2 |
2023Q1 |
|
|
石油石化 |
炼化及贸易 |
8.11% |
8.69% |
2.99% |
3.16% |
125.78% |
128.63% |
51.35% |
50.94% |
|
石油石化 |
油服工程 |
7.12% |
6.62% |
3.37% |
3.14% |
78.26% |
79.88% |
63.28% |
62.25% |
|
石油石化 |
油气开采 |
20.43% |
10.99% |
31.87% |
19.59% |
40.28% |
26.16% |
37.04% |
53.01% |
|
煤炭 |
煤炭开采 |
18.28% |
20.27% |
17.17% |
19.44% |
58.93% |
61.09% |
46.66% |
43.57% |
|
煤炭 |
焦炭 |
4.04% |
7.20% |
1.88% |
3.87% |
71.17% |
78.46% |
49.25% |
48.06% |
|
有色金属 |
工业金属 |
10.04% |
11.32% |
3.68% |
4.12% |
132.27% |
133.98% |
53.74% |
53.21% |
|
有色金属 |
贵金属 |
5.79% |
5.34% |
2.57% |
2.47% |
111.57% |
109.75% |
54.12% |
53.18% |
|
有色金属 |
能源金属 |
29.05% |
34.68% |
31.19% |
33.46% |
60.69% |
64.46% |
44.09% |
42.78% |
|
有色金属 |
金属新材料 |
9.94% |
10.73% |
7.09% |
7.64% |
77.83% |
77.68% |
44.10% |
44.06% |
|
有色金属 |
小金属 |
9.81% |
12.30% |
4.58% |
5.56% |
100.96% |
108.34% |
51.24% |
50.11% |
|
钢铁 |
普钢 |
-1.01% |
0.20% |
-0.31% |
0.19% |
96.45% |
98.38% |
57.38% |
57.64% |
|
钢铁 |
特钢 |
5.33% |
6.53% |
1.85% |
2.32% |
106.39% |
104.11% |
57.28% |
58.03% |
|
钢铁 |
冶钢原料 |
9.15% |
11.85% |
13.03% |
15.90% |
51.07% |
54.48% |
33.31% |
32.92% |
|
基础化工 |
农化制品 |
12.50% |
18.62% |
9.73% |
13.47% |
71.72% |
76.99% |
47.17% |
46.52% |
|
基础化工 |
化学制品 |
8.20% |
9.82% |
6.84% |
7.96% |
62.73% |
65.69% |
47.87% |
47.09% |
|
基础化工 |
化学原料 |
5.26% |
8.51% |
5.00% |
7.71% |
56.54% |
60.01% |
46.77% |
45.68% |
|
基础化工 |
化学纤维 |
5.08% |
5.45% |
3.22% |
3.44% |
72.45% |
75.85% |
52.76% |
51.21% |
|
基础化工 |
塑料 |
5.64% |
5.65% |
4.13% |
4.25% |
71.96% |
71.65% |
46.37% |
45.76% |
|
基础化工 |
橡胶 |
6.22% |
6.99% |
4.85% |
5.37% |
69.28% |
72.07% |
44.27% |
43.36% |
|
基础化工 |
非金属材料 |
16.88% |
14.12% |
13.99% |
12.40% |
69.57% |
68.39% |
37.59% |
38.96% |
|
建筑材料 |
水泥 |
3.51% |
4.47% |
3.28% |
4.21% |
45.97% |
47.32% |
51.46% |
50.82% |
|
建筑材料 |
玻璃玻纤 |
11.16% |
12.94% |
11.43% |
13.33% |
46.30% |
48.61% |
49.03% |
47.17% |
|
建筑材料 |
装修建材 |
7.91% |
7.54% |
6.22% |
5.90% |
66.70% |
67.55% |
47.15% |
46.45% |
|
建筑装饰 |
基础建设 |
7.95% |
8.00% |
2.94% |
2.94% |
55.53% |
57.41% |
76.02% |
75.34% |
|
建筑装饰 |
房屋建设 |
11.98% |
12.13% |
2.75% |
2.85% |
73.72% |
75.93% |
78.51% |
77.56% |
|
建筑装饰 |
专业工程 |
6.26% |
6.29% |
2.19% |
2.28% |
84.03% |
84.35% |
71.45% |
70.04% |
|
建筑装饰 |
装修装饰 |
-23.63% |
-25.63% |
-8.81% |
-9.67% |
56.82% |
56.48% |
77.55% |
77.37% |
|
建筑装饰 |
工程咨询服务 |
5.25% |
4.92% |
4.46% |
4.24% |
61.18% |
61.13% |
51.05% |
49.94% |
|
机械设备 |
专用设备 |
6.91% |
6.92% |
6.46% |
6.59% |
49.19% |
49.69% |
55.10% |
54.23% |
|
机械设备 |
通用设备 |
6.41% |
6.50% |
5.98% |
6.12% |
56.52% |
56.88% |
47.31% |
46.50% |
|
机械设备 |
轨交设备 |
6.49% |
6.50% |
6.13% |
6.16% |
49.17% |
50.26% |
55.20% |
53.88% |
|
机械设备 |
工程机械 |
8.52% |
7.39% |
6.80% |
6.18% |
52.04% |
49.89% |
58.08% |
57.99% |
|
机械设备 |
自动化设备 |
8.10% |
7.99% |
8.40% |
8.03% |
49.90% |
50.15% |
47.84% |
49.01% |
|
电力设备 |
光伏设备 |
23.08% |
22.69% |
12.61% |
12.80% |
75.76% |
76.32% |
58.67% |
56.76% |
|
电力设备 |
风电设备 |
5.61% |
5.60% |
5.22% |
5.29% |
40.61% |
40.80% |
61.38% |
60.34% |
|
电力设备 |
电池 |
9.32% |
13.71% |
6.17% |
8.25% |
63.74% |
62.22% |
55.37% |
60.64% |
|
电力设备 |
电网设备 |
10.31% |
10.46% |
8.10% |
8.29% |
66.51% |
69.05% |
52.52% |
51.10% |
|
电力设备 |
电机 |
6.84% |
7.03% |
5.70% |
5.88% |
65.11% |
65.85% |
44.12% |
43.94% |
|
电力设备 |
其他电源设备 |
3.05% |
2.06% |
2.68% |
2.09% |
43.45% |
42.19% |
63.58% |
61.32% |
|
国防军工 |
航天装备 |
5.04% |
5.47% |
7.91% |
8.30% |
33.49% |
35.65% |
43.09% |
41.41% |
|
国防军工 |
航空装备 |
7.09% |
7.32% |
7.26% |
7.06% |
45.42% |
45.37% |
53.21% |
55.63% |
|
国防军工 |
航海装备 |
-0.03% |
-0.67% |
0.37% |
-0.45% |
31.72% |
29.73% |
60.36% |
59.57% |
|
国防军工 |
军工电子 |
5.66% |
5.76% |
9.21% |
9.38% |
39.11% |
39.05% |
35.43% |
35.63% |
|
国防军工 |
地面兵装 |
3.99% |
5.16% |
5.14% |
6.23% |
49.03% |
49.32% |
38.74% |
41.56% |
|
汽车 |
乘用车 |
7.32% |
7.00% |
3.19% |
3.29% |
78.83% |
74.10% |
65.61% |
65.01% |
|
汽车 |
商用车 |
1.82% |
-1.18% |
0.71% |
-0.51% |
80.87% |
74.17% |
66.06% |
65.70% |
|
汽车 |
汽车零部件 |
6.44% |
5.73% |
4.32% |
4.00% |
67.72% |
66.42% |
54.30% |
53.33% |
|
汽车 |
摩托车及其他 |
8.84% |
8.89% |
5.21% |
5.29% |
81.69% |
82.99% |
47.68% |
48.05% |
|
汽车 |
汽车服务 |
-1.00% |
-2.45% |
-0.11% |
-0.59% |
117.85% |
114.01% |
59.82% |
58.70% |
|
家用电器 |
白色家电 |
20.53% |
19.41% |
8.50% |
8.24% |
76.42% |
77.93% |
67.12% |
65.70% |
|
家用电器 |
黑色家电 |
4.90% |
5.38% |
2.14% |
2.29% |
90.68% |
93.04% |
62.27% |
60.87% |
|
家用电器 |
小家电 |
16.64% |
15.51% |
9.41% |
9.22% |
98.11% |
96.65% |
44.44% |
42.49% |
|
家用电器 |
厨卫电器 |
14.18% |
13.16% |
12.08% |
11.59% |
72.48% |
73.29% |
37.27% |
34.50% |
|
家用电器 |
家电零部件 |
14.67% |
14.22% |
8.15% |
7.98% |
81.63% |
81.10% |
52.98% |
52.43% |
|
家用电器 |
照明设备 |
8.89% |
8.68% |
6.60% |
6.51% |
72.53% |
75.52% |
41.45% |
38.73% |
|
家用电器 |
其他家电 |
4.39% |
4.86% |
4.72% |
4.90% |
60.09% |
62.96% |
38.78% |
38.15% |
|
轻工制造 |
家居用品 |
9.31% |
8.18% |
7.05% |
6.20% |
70.45% |
71.14% |
45.44% |
44.74% |
|
轻工制造 |
造纸 |
0.35% |
1.48% |
0.15% |
0.96% |
59.44% |
62.15% |
58.40% |
57.67% |
|
轻工制造 |
包装印刷 |
4.41% |
4.26% |
3.58% |
3.45% |
68.26% |
69.16% |
42.75% |
42.03% |
|
轻工制造 |
文娱用品 |
6.86% |
6.95% |
4.36% |
4.56% |
92.57% |
92.18% |
43.23% |
41.44% |
|
商贸零售 |
旅游零售 |
9.65% |
9.43% |
9.21% |
9.82% |
79.38% |
73.15% |
27.62% |
29.53% |
|
商贸零售 |
一般零售 |
2.62% |
1.82% |
2.08% |
1.56% |
50.78% |
47.51% |
62.42% |
62.56% |
|
商贸零售 |
互联网电商 |
1.78% |
-28.58% |
0.59% |
-9.03% |
141.95% |
78.42% |
46.38% |
75.91% |
|
商贸零售 |
贸易 |
2.95% |
2.98% |
1.30% |
1.15% |
159.66% |
168.39% |
64.78% |
65.19% |
|
商贸零售 |
专业连锁 |
7.72% |
-9.30% |
0.75% |
-0.66% |
360.44% |
326.54% |
67.65% |
74.28% |
|
社会服务 |
酒店餐饮 |
1.30% |
-1.64% |
2.30% |
-2.25% |
27.18% |
24.76% |
61.77% |
60.80% |
|
社会服务 |
旅游及景区 |
-2.27% |
-6.50% |
-4.45% |
-17.05% |
27.70% |
21.88% |
44.51% |
43.84% |
|
社会服务 |
教育 |
-4.88% |
-6.96% |
-8.34% |
-11.27% |
30.76% |
30.14% |
52.73% |
53.25% |
|
社会服务 |
体育 |
251.59% |
600.69% |
-236.20% |
-191.99% |
24.04% |
23.34% |
114.51% |
99.28% |
|
社会服务 |
专业服务 |
9.17% |
7.86% |
8.67% |
7.65% |
67.40% |
62.99% |
38.03% |
40.22% |
|
美容护理 |
个护用品 |
8.18% |
8.65% |
7.98% |
8.46% |
69.80% |
69.90% |
31.34% |
30.82% |
|
美容护理 |
化妆品 |
7.50% |
6.02% |
7.68% |
6.25% |
61.34% |
61.15% |
36.61% |
35.81% |
|
美容护理 |
医疗美容 |
7.86% |
6.19% |
9.85% |
8.02% |
55.16% |
52.54% |
28.17% |
28.26% |
|
食品饮料 |
白酒 |
28.10% |
25.22% |
38.68% |
38.65% |
55.02% |
50.69% |
24.38% |
22.77% |
|
食品饮料 |
非白酒 |
8.81% |
7.96% |
11.10% |
10.44% |
56.01% |
55.86% |
39.27% |
37.37% |
|
食品饮料 |
饮料乳品 |
13.72% |
12.38% |
7.04% |
6.69% |
83.24% |
79.97% |
54.24% |
53.55% |
|
食品饮料 |
食品加工 |
12.52% |
12.49% |
6.09% |
6.38% |
117.71% |
115.07% |
39.63% |
39.52% |
|
食品饮料 |
调味发酵品 |
10.82% |
13.57% |
11.71% |
15.02% |
67.54% |
67.89% |
26.43% |
24.17% |
|
食品饮料 |
休闲食品 |
8.51% |
8.09% |
6.37% |
6.32% |
90.37% |
87.57% |
31.41% |
30.39% |
|
纺织服饰 |
纺织制造 |
6.04% |
6.50% |
5.13% |
5.55% |
66.81% |
68.63% |
41.91% |
39.97% |
|
纺织服饰 |
服装家纺 |
4.28% |
3.08% |
4.81% |
3.51% |
49.30% |
48.76% |
43.42% |
42.72% |
|
纺织服饰 |
饰品 |
2.28% |
2.09% |
1.00% |
0.98% |
191.59% |
173.84% |
46.27% |
47.81% |
|
医药生物 |
化学制药 |
7.02% |
6.71% |
8.38% |
8.04% |
51.52% |
51.24% |
38.78% |
39.22% |
|
医药生物 |
中药 |
8.73% |
7.83% |
9.04% |
8.46% |
60.30% |
58.25% |
37.08% |
36.46% |
|
医药生物 |
医疗器械 |
10.63% |
12.00% |
17.43% |
19.02% |
44.40% |
46.48% |
26.21% |
25.58% |
|
医药生物 |
生物制品 |
3.13% |
3.16% |
6.51% |
7.07% |
35.33% |
35.33% |
24.28% |
23.08% |
|
医药生物 |
医疗服务 |
10.58% |
12.05% |
13.54% |
14.90% |
51.29% |
52.27% |
33.58% |
34.84% |
|
医药生物 |
医药商业 |
6.52% |
7.40% |
1.91% |
2.24% |
125.35% |
123.27% |
65.84% |
65.25% |
|
农林牧渔 |
养殖业 |
5.38% |
7.20% |
2.32% |
3.06% |
85.73% |
82.71% |
65.64% |
63.56% |
|
农林牧渔 |
农产品加工 |
1.17% |
2.84% |
0.29% |
0.91% |
104.02% |
107.61% |
58.22% |
57.18% |
|
农林牧渔 |
种植业 |
4.14% |
4.41% |
3.14% |
3.88% |
60.86% |
53.01% |
51.99% |
52.05% |
|
农林牧渔 |
饲料 |
3.13% |
5.62% |
0.73% |
1.49% |
156.25% |
152.05% |
60.42% |
58.66% |
|
农林牧渔 |
动物保健 |
7.43% |
7.18% |
12.92% |
12.90% |
39.07% |
39.75% |
27.20% |
25.12% |
|
农林牧渔 |
农业综合 |
6.34% |
8.40% |
2.08% |
2.70% |
104.97% |
111.26% |
62.67% |
61.82% |
|
农林牧渔 |
林业 |
-3.70% |
1.63% |
-5.03% |
4.61% |
25.70% |
27.33% |
48.37% |
47.97% |
|
农林牧渔 |
渔业 |
-1.61% |
1.00% |
-1.28% |
1.00% |
56.94% |
56.03% |
50.77% |
51.60% |
|
电子 |
半导体 |
4.97% |
6.65% |
8.64% |
10.87% |
34.72% |
36.87% |
33.98% |
34.10% |
|
电子 |
消费电子 |
10.67% |
10.41% |
4.18% |
4.07% |
125.66% |
130.49% |
49.96% |
48.10% |
|
电子 |
光学光电子 |
-3.02% |
-2.28% |
-3.35% |
-3.21% |
44.31% |
44.41% |
54.97% |
54.51% |
|
电子 |
元件 |
8.29% |
8.84% |
8.19% |
8.67% |
58.91% |
60.78% |
40.75% |
39.54% |
|
电子 |
电子化学品 |
6.51% |
7.67% |
9.32% |
10.77% |
47.84% |
48.83% |
31.77% |
31.28% |
|
电子 |
其他电子 |
6.30% |
6.87% |
2.62% |
2.67% |
128.00% |
141.07% |
46.55% |
46.20% |
|
计算机 |
计算机设备 |
6.39% |
6.51% |
6.12% |
6.29% |
57.61% |
58.47% |
44.79% |
43.68% |
|
计算机 |
IT服务 |
2.08% |
2.14% |
2.14% |
2.09% |
70.75% |
72.63% |
43.51% |
43.84% |
|
计算机 |
软件开发 |
1.53% |
1.28% |
1.52% |
1.26% |
61.78% |
62.63% |
34.17% |
33.35% |
|
通信 |
通信服务 |
8.46% |
8.26% |
9.18% |
9.01% |
53.49% |
53.07% |
39.39% |
39.43% |
|
通信 |
通信设备 |
8.79% |
8.63% |
6.22% |
6.07% |
67.78% |
68.66% |
50.02% |
49.96% |
|
传媒 |
出版 |
9.40% |
9.42% |
11.42% |
11.59% |
50.65% |
49.86% |
37.78% |
37.67% |
|
传媒 |
游戏 |
-0.74% |
-0.70% |
-0.07% |
-0.08% |
43.13% |
43.44% |
27.06% |
27.34% |
|
传媒 |
广告营销 |
1.65% |
0.03% |
0.84% |
0.03% |
113.75% |
110.26% |
40.67% |
40.98% |
|
传媒 |
数字媒体 |
7.46% |
7.48% |
11.71% |
11.81% |
42.39% |
42.62% |
31.60% |
30.82% |
|
传媒 |
影视院线 |
-4.49% |
-7.14% |
-8.81% |
-14.95% |
28.26% |
25.75% |
45.63% |
46.90% |
|
传媒 |
电视广播 |
0.56% |
0.47% |
2.19% |
1.89% |
21.27% |
21.20% |
41.43% |
40.69% |
|
银行 |
国有大型银行 |
9.98% |
9.89% |
38.32% |
37.60% |
2.00% |
2.08% |
92.29% |
92.06% |
|
银行 |
股份制银行 |
9.79% |
9.75% |
32.92% |
32.52% |
2.41% |
2.46% |
91.89% |
91.79% |
|
银行 |
城商行 |
10.66% |
10.59% |
39.24% |
38.45% |
2.03% |
2.07% |
92.54% |
92.51% |
|
银行 |
农商行 |
10.11% |
9.84% |
39.96% |
38.63% |
2.08% |
2.09% |
91.81% |
91.81% |
|
非银金融 |
证券 |
5.71% |
6.20% |
28.49% |
29.35% |
4.22% |
4.43% |
78.85% |
78.82% |
|
非银金融 |
保险 |
9.41% |
10.45% |
7.55% |
7.99% |
13.26% |
14.14% |
89.20% |
88.86% |
|
非银金融 |
多元金融 |
4.71% |
5.15% |
23.23% |
22.61% |
4.69% |
5.31% |
78.39% |
77.95% |
|
房地产 |
房地产开发 |
-1.40% |
-4.90% |
0.10% |
-1.99% |
22.22% |
21.07% |
77.78% |
79.32% |
|
房地产 |
房地产服务 |
-3.41% |
-3.13% |
-2.28% |
-2.24% |
53.95% |
51.54% |
60.69% |
60.91% |
|
公用事业 |
电力 |
6.41% |
5.43% |
8.43% |
6.60% |
27.61% |
28.89% |
64.86% |
65.19% |
|
公用事业 |
燃气 |
12.76% |
12.26% |
6.47% |
6.31% |
79.98% |
80.90% |
58.78% |
58.67% |
|
交通运输 |
航空机场 |
-44.04% |
-60.52% |
-25.22% |
-46.21% |
28.39% |
21.94% |
83.70% |
83.66% |
|
交通运输 |
铁路公路 |
6.37% |
5.49% |
16.43% |
14.99% |
20.69% |
20.13% |
44.40% |
43.01% |
|
交通运输 |
航运港口 |
14.21% |
17.61% |
23.46% |
26.32% |
33.27% |
37.31% |
43.61% |
42.71% |
|
交通运输 |
物流 |
9.38% |
9.78% |
1.42% |
1.46% |
182.22% |
188.87% |
68.38% |
68.65% |
|
环保 |
环境治理 |
5.54% |
5.38% |
8.74% |
8.50% |
25.57% |
25.96% |
58.86% |
58.63% |
|
环保 |
环保设备 |
4.86% |
4.98% |
4.80% |
5.01% |
51.47% |
51.62% |
49.57% |
49.13% |
行业研究：
计算机行业：
9月8日，中国资产评估协会发布《数据资产评估指导意见》，对数据资产的相关属性，价值影响因素，价值评估方法做出了总体性规定。本次《指导意见》，正式明确了数据资产将以何种价值入表，以及未来将以何种价值交易，进一步推动数据要素的价值实现，产业化、资本化路径有望逐步展开，数据有望成为数字经济时代的第一生产要素。7月28日，据人力资源和社会保障部消息，任命刘烈宏为国家数据局首任局长；8月21日，财政部正式印发《企业数据资源相关会计处理暂行规定》。伴随自上而下监管体系的确立，我们认为数据确权、收益、交易等方面的政策有望陆续推出，数据要素落地进度有望持续超预期。
汽车行业：
1.本周，沪深300指数下跌1.36%，汽车行业指数下跌1.00%，跌幅小于沪深300指数，在申万31个一级行业中，位列第19位。国防军工板块上涨4.30%，涨幅最高，传媒板块下跌6.59%，跌幅最大。
2.汽车行业二级子板块：商用车上涨0.27%，涨幅最大；汽车服务下跌2.60%，跌幅最大。
3. 个股方面：汽车行业板块内共有个股251只。上周，板块内个股跌多涨少，其中63只个股上涨，186只个股下跌。个股涨跌幅均值为-1.17%，中值为-1.22%。涨幅最大的个股是：赛力斯(18.46%)；跌幅最大的个股是：纽泰格(-16.89%)。
|
板块个股概况 |
幅度 |
|
总个股数 |
251 |
|
最大值 |
18.46% |
|
最小值 |
-16.89% |
|
平均值 |
-1.17% |
|
中值 |
-1.22% |
|
上涨个数 |
63 |
|
下跌个数 |
186 |
4. 估值方面，截止2023年9月8日，沪深300市盈率为11.6X，汽车行业的市盈率为27X。
在我国汽车工业的营收规模及利润规模不断扩大的同时，汽车行业估值(PE-TTM)中枢也逐步上行，近20年的PE中枢值为20.38X，近10年中枢值为22.59X，近5年中枢值为28.17X，近3年中枢值为30.68X，这一特征也符合当下汽车行业转型升级大趋势，即：新能源汽车渗透率快速上行，智能驾驶等高科技配置渗透率迅速提升。
考虑到行业发展背景（内部产品结构变更）和行业属性（制造业属性+科技属性），2019年至今的估值数据更具统一性。
当前，PE-TTM为27.05，分位数（2019年至今）为38.28%；PB-TTM为3.24，分位数为53.16%；市销率为1.03，分位数为42.49%。以上数据显示，汽车行业整体估值稍低于2019年以来的中枢值。
当前，PE-TTM为27.3，分位数（2019年至今）为49.79%；PB-TTM为2.08，分位数为75%；市销率为1.03，分位数为25%。以上数据显示，汽车行业整体估值稍低于2019年以来的中枢值。
|
|
倍数 |
分位数 |
|
PE-TTM |
27.05 |
38.28 |
|
PB-MRQ |
3.24 |
53.16 |
|
PS-TTM |
1.02 |
42.49 |
5.2023年8月乘用车市场销量概述
乘用车：8月，狭义乘用车零售为192万辆，为历史同期最高销量，同比增长2.5%，环比增长8.6%；1-8月狭义乘用车累计零售为1322万辆，同比增长2%。
新能源：8月，新能源乘用车零售71.6万辆，同比增长34.5%，环比增长11.8%，单月新能源渗透率为37.3%；1-8月累计零售为44.1万辆，同比增长36%，累计新能源渗透率为34%。
出口：8月，乘用车出口33万辆，同比增长31%，环比增长7%。其中，新能源乘用车出口7.8万辆，同比增长7%，环比下降11.8%。
